Blog

I’m looking at the FIFA rankings at August 2018, as you do. They rank all the world’s international football teams in order of strength. Compared to the previous ranking list two months earlier, there have been some big movements. Croatia
Uncategorized
You know, Facebook can be quite handy sometimes.  It just reminded me of how twelve months ago today I was venting about a badly run meeting that I’d seen.  I was intending at the time to turn my Facebook rant
Uncategorized
Let me say two things first. This is an article about game theory.  It doesn’t constitute investment advice. This article presents the solution to a game theory problem.  You should really take a look at the original problem before reading
Uncategorized
*** This is an article on game theory and does not constitute investment advice *** I was out walking the dog yesterday and found myself daydreaming, as you do.  On the way out I managed to develop a new cryptocurrency
Uncategorized
OK. Let’s start with a problem: – You’re an entrepreneur – You have a slot on Dragon’s Den – You value your company at Y – You need a capital injection of X. – How much equity in the company
Uncategorized
One of my previous employers was a big fan of the Pareto Principle.  Whenever a task landed on my desk I was told they wanted an “80/20 job”.  They wanted me to only spend 20% of the time on it
Uncategorized
Take a look at this picture.  What’s the first thing that you do?  Maybe you try answering the question or maybe you’re like me and you add up those four percentages to check that they sum to one hundred.  If
Uncategorized
There was a story in the news today about someone who had collected £72,000 from the bookies after cashing in a bet on Leicester City to win the Premiership.  He originally bet £50 at odds of 5,000-1 on a Leicester
Uncategorized
Everybody involved in risk measurement knows what a 1 in 200 event is, don’t they?  It’s such a fundamental concept, anybody reading this is probably insulted that I’m even asking the question.  But bear with me. Let’s make things really
Uncategorized
I had a dream last night. I was sitting in the pub at lunchtime having a beer with that clever guy from Pointless.  I forget the name.  In this dream, though, he was a pollster and he was telling me
Uncategorized
I recently discovered this paper: http://www.hpcc.org/datafile/V23N3/V23N3P25.pdf I thought it was worth sharing. It specs out a program for the HP 12C calculator which calculates European call and put prices and implied vols of European call options.  And also outputs vega
Uncategorized